Policy Watchtower/Track record
Forecast track record
Every forecast we have closed, with what happened. What we said is shown exactly as we said it.
A forecast is a dated, checkable claim about what a signal leads to: whether a posts, a rule takes effect, an bill reaches a stage, or money goes out, with the confidence we gave it at the time and the window it had to happen in. When the window closes we check the public record and show the result here.
Our promise. Nothing is removed from this record once it is closed. Misses and expired forecasts are shown as prominently as hits, and every closed forecast is counted in the scorecard. A duplicate we merged stays listed, marked as a duplicate, with a link to the one we kept. A forecast is never edited after it is made: the confidence shown here is exactly what readers saw before the outcome was known.
Scorecard · Funding notice (NOFO)
Every closed forecast is counted. A duplicate is listed but not counted in a rate.
Closed
0
Forecasts whose window has ended and that we have checked: hits, misses and expired alike.
Happened
0
The public record shows the event happened inside the window.
Did not happen
0
A source that could tell us found the event did not happen inside the window.
Could not be checked
0
An : the window ended and no public record could settle it. Not a miss; no weight in the rates.
Not enough closed forecasts yet to report accuracy. We report rates once 50 closed forecasts have a verdict in Funding notice (NOFO); so far 0 do. The counts above and the list below are complete.
Closed forecasts · Funding notice (NOFO)
Newest first. Each card shows the claim, what we said, the window, the verdict and the dated records that settled it; an is one we could not check.
No closed forecast matches this filter yet.
What we do not forecast
A forecast needs an outcome we can check at a public source by an identifier. These topics stay signals only:
- Consultation — a consultation's outcome is a government-to-government process, not a record we can look up.
- Court decision — court timing and outcomes have no public endpoint to check by case.
- Federal leadership — appointments and departures are announced, not filed where a resolver can read them.
- Legislation other than appropriations — we forecast appropriations stages, not whether an authorizing bill becomes law.
Most forecasts so far are in the Funding notice () lane, and most of those are NIH and HHS programs whose tribal eligibility is "non-federally recognized tribal governments", because that is where 's forecasted opportunities lean. The mix shifts as the Congress's funding bills (), Rules (regulations) and Money paid out (obligations) lanes close.
See live forecasts
Open forecasts, the ones whose window has not closed, sit on each signal's page for the Researcher plan and up. When they close they join this record, hit or miss.
Terms with a dotted underline open a plain-language definition. This is guidance, not legal advice: the official text always controls. A free public service from GrantsPath, a Native-owned business.